The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

Secretary Treasury Scott Bessent said both the U.S. and China don’t want the trade war to escalate. However, he said it’s China’s responsibility to ensure that doesn’t happen. As the U.S. and China stare each down amid their ongoing trade war,